Amakuru yo kumeswa: Trump Kurimwo Ibiciro Vy’Isi yose N’Ibarabara Rikurikira

Trump kugira ngo ashireho amakori ku bikoresho vyo mu mazi kw'isi yose n'ivyo kwinjiza mu mazi kw'isi yose mu ndwi iza

 

Ku wa 5 Myandagaro, mu kiganiro co mu karere, mu kiganiro yagiranye na CNBC, Trump yatangaje ko afise umugambi wo gutegeka amakori ku bikoresho vy’ubuhinga bwa none n’ibikoresho vy’ubuhinga bwa none “mu ndwi iza,” ariko nta n’ibintu vyihariye vyatanze ku buryo ivyo vyoshirwa mu ngiro. Ivyo si bishasha; ni ubuhinga buhoraho mu gihe cose arongoye. Ariko rero, muri iki gihe, gushingira ku bikoresho vy’ubuhinga bwa none birashobora gutuma uruhererekane rw’inganda z’ubuhinga bwa none rushobora guhinduka.

 

Ivyo bikoresho vy’imbere birazwi neza. Trump yabandanije uburyo bwiwe bwo gukora "America First" kuva mu gihe ciwe ca kabiri, kenshi akoresha amakori nk'igikoresho mu bucuruzi. Mbere y’aho, yarakoresheje amakori y’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi n’Ubushinwa, mbere n’akoshorewe n’ishirahamwe rya CHIPS kugira ngo aremeshe amashirahamwe kwubaka amahinguriro muri Amerika. Ico gihe, gushingirako ibipimo vy’ubuhinga bwa none biratomoye ku muntu wese afise ijisho ry’ugutahura, bikaba bigamije kwihutisha uguhinduka kw’ubushobozi bwo gukora kw’isi yose muri Amerika, kugabanya kwizigira uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho vyo muri Aziya, no kubungabunga ikibanza nyamukuru ca Amerika muri iyo nganda.

 

Mu vy'amategeko, ikintu gishobora kuba ari ugukina ikarata "y'igihugu", hakoreshejwe igice ca 232 c'Itegeko ry'Ugukoresha ubudandaji ryo mu 1962. Itohoza nk'iryo nyene ryakozwe ku bicuruzwa nk'ibikoresho vy'ubuhinga bwa none n'imiti, kandi ibisubizo bishobora gusohoka kuva muri iki ciyumviro. Iyo itohoza ribonye ko amasemiza y’ibice vy’umubiri biva hanze bitera ingorane y’umutekano, amakori y’ibice 25% gushika kuri 50% yoshobora kubaho.

 

Ingaruka z'isi yose: Ibindi bihumanya kw'Igikoresho c'Isi yose n'Igikoresho c'Ibikoresho vy'Ivyigwa

 

Mu buryo bukora, uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho vy’ubuhinga bwa none rwo kw’isi yose nta gukeka ko ruzohunga. Ubu Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zishingiye cane ku bushobozi bwo gukora Aziya. Ikoranabuhanga ry’ubuhinga bwa none rya Taiwan ritanga 92% vy’ibikorwa vy’isi yose, kandi Koreya y’Epfo ni yo irongoye mu bice vy’ubuhinga bwo kwibuka. Iyo amakori ashizweho, amashirahamwe nka TSMC na Samsung azoshobora kwihuta kwubaka amahinguriro muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika kugira ngo ntihagire uwo musoro. TSMC yaramaze gushiramwo amadolari 165 miliyari muri Arizona, kandi Koreya y’Epfo yaratumye amafaranga yayo y’ubuhinga bwa none aronka amafaranga y’amamiliyaridi 33 y’amarundi, ivyo vyose bikaba vyari biteguwe.

 

Ukwongerekana kw’ibiciro na vyo nyene ntibishoboka. Nk’akarorero, Apple yizigira cane cane TSMC kubera telefone zayo zo kuri telefone ngendanwa no kuri orodinateri. Iyo ibiciro biduga ku rugero rwa 15% gushika kuri 20%, igiciro c’ibicuruzwa vy’iherezo nta gukeka kizokwongerekana, kandi abaguzi basanzwe bazobwirizwa kwishura vyinshi. Mbere na ASML yavuze ko amakori yoshobora guhungabanya ubudandaji. Naho raporo y’ivy’ubutunzi ya kabiri y’icupa yari nziza, iracari ihagaritse umutima.

 

Umuryango w'ubumwe bw'Uburayi: Ubutunzi n’ubudandaji burakomeye, kandi amahane y’ivy’ubutunzi na yo nyene ategerezwa gukomera. Ubushinwa bwahinduye amategeko yayo y’inkomoko y’inkomoko, ubu aharura ahantu ho guhingura amazi aho gupfunyika aho gupfunyika, mu kugerageza kugabanya ingaruka z’amakori. Ishirahamwe ry’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi ryari ryaraguze amadolari 750 miliyaridi y’inguvu z’Amerika, bikaba vyatumye habaho amasezerano y’imisoro 15%, ariko ibikoresho vy’ivyuma bishobora kuba bikiriho amakori atandukanye, ivyo bikaba bituma habaho ugutotezwa kutagira aho bigarukira.

 

Tayiwani: uturere dutandukanye turiko turahura n’ibihe bikomeye. Ivyo Taiwan yoherezwa hanze ya Taiwan ni 20,8% vy’ivyo yohereza hanze vyose. Iyo amakori aduze hejuru ya 25%, ivyoherezwa muri Amerika birashoboka ko bizoba ata mahiganwa bizoshika, kandi ubucuruzi buto buto bwoshobora no gufunga. Ububiko bwa Taiwan -Ingengo y’Imari, Uburebure n’Imibare yaharuye ko 20% vy’amahera y’umwaka yoshobora gutuma iterambere ry’ubutunzi ry’umwaka rigabanuka kuva kuri 3,1% gushika kuri 2,5%, canke mbere n’iterambere ribi.

 

Koreya y'Epfo: Naho ibice vy’ukwibuka ari ikintu gikomeye co gukora, ibintu bikomeye nk’ibice vy’imodoka bishobora gutakaza akamaro kayo k’igiciro kubera amakori. Leta ya Koreya y’Epfo iteganya gutanga amamiliyaridi 500 y’amanota yo gushigikira amashirahamwe mato mato n’ayisumbuye, yizigiye gutsinda uko ibintu vyifashe ubu biciye mu guhindura ubuhinga.

 

Ubushinwa bwo mu gihugu: Mu vy’ukuri twoshobora kwihutisha gusubirira mu gihugu. Ishirahamwe ry’abahinga mu vy’inganda ryitwa Semicloductor ryasobanuye ko aho inkomoko y’inkomoko igenwa n’aho umuntu ariko arahingura amazi. Amashirahamwe menshi y’uguhingura ibintu mu mahanga ashobora guhindura ubuhinga bwo guhingura ibintu ku bahinga bo mu rugo nka SMIC na Huhong. Abahinguzi b’ibikoresho vy’ubuhinga bwa none nka Shengbang Semictor na SiRuiPu bashobora kubona ko umugabane wabo w’isoko wiyongera.

 

Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika: Ku bwa Amerika ubwayo, uwu ni umuhezagiro uvanze. Naho hoshobora kuba hariho ubushobozi bwo gusubiza inyuma ubushobozi bw’igihe gito, kwubaka uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho vyose bizotwara imyaka. Ubu muri Amerika irashikirwa n’ubukene bw’ibikoresho vy’ivyuma, ibikoresho n’ubuhinga, kandi ntibizoshobora gufata ningoga. Iyo ivyoherezwa mu Bushinwa bibujijwe ku masosiyete nka Intel na Texas, umugabane wabo w’isoko woshobora gukurwamwo n’amashirahamwe y’Abashinwa. Ikindi kandi, iyo amakori aduga, ibikoresho vy’ubuhinga bwa none n’ivy’imiduga bizoba bizimvye cane, bishobora gutuma abaguzi b’Abanyamerika amamiliyaridi bagenda barushirizaho ku mwaka, ivyo bikaba bituma habaho uguhungabana kw’ibiciro.

 

Inyishu z’akarere zishobora kuba zidake, kandi akajagari mu rwego rw’ibikoresho vy’ubuhinga bwa none biriko biratangura.

 

Amahanga ntazokwicara ataco akora. Taiwan ishobora gushiramwo amahera menshi muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, kumbure mu kwagura ubushobozi bwa TSMC no kugura ibintu bimwebimwe vy’uburimyi n’inguvu vyo muri Amerika kugira ngo bigabanye amafaranga. Ariko kandi, hariho n'ivyiyumviro vyo muri iryo zinga yuko kwizigira cane Amerika bishobora gutuma ubuhinga busohoka mu buryo bw'ubuhinga kandi bugatera ubwoba ikibanza caco nk'inkinzo y'amabuye y'agaciro."

 

Uretse ishoramari ryayo bwite, Koreya y’Epfo na yo nyene ishaka gufatanya n’ishirahamwe ry’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi n’Ubuyapani kugira ngo ishobore gutorera umuti ivyo bintu. Nk’akarorero, vyoshobora gukorana n’ishirahamwe ry’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi ku buhinga buteye imbere bwo gupfunyika kugira ngo bigabanye ukwizigira kwayo kuri Amerika.

 

Mu Bushinwa, ama mecaurteurs ni ikintu nyamukuru mu 14th Five - Umugambi w’Iyeri, kandi uguhindura amategeko y’inkomoko biriko birakoreshwa mu gukwegera amategeko yo mu mahanga. SMIC yaramaze gutangaza imigambi yo kwagura ubuhinga bwa 28nm chip i Shanghai, ifata amategeko ashobora guhera muri Tayiwani.

 

Ariko rero, haracariho ibintu vyinshi bitari vyiza. Ivyiyumviro vy’agaciro, ibintu bishobora gusonerwa, n’ibintu vyose bisonerwa vyose bizotegerezwa kurindira itangazo rya Trump ry’ido n’ido mu ndwi iza. Iyo igipimo c’imisoro kiri hasi y’ivyo umuntu yiteze, kumbure 15% gushika kuri 20%, ingaruka z’isoko zishobora kugabanya; ariko rero, iyo ishitse ku rugero rwa 50%, inganda z’ubuhinga bwa none kw’isi yose zizohura n’ugusubiramwo gukomeye.

 

Amashirahamwe na yo nyene arafise imigambi yayo. TSMC na Samsung bashobora kwongera utwigoro twayo two kwubaka amahinguriro muri Amerika, mu gihe amashirahamwe mato mato n’aya hagati ashika ku bigo bishobora kwimukira muri Aziya y’amajepfo canke mu Buhindi. Amashirahamwe y’ugupfunyika no gupima nka ASE na Powerchip arasanzwe ariko ariyumvira kwagura umusaruro muri Vietnam.

 

Ibiciro vya Amerika bishobora gutuma uburyo bwa WTO bugoyagoya, bugatuma amasezerano y’ubudandaji yo mu karere nk’aya “Quad” hagati ya Amerika, Ubuyapani, Ubuhinde, na Australiya zikundwa cane. Ariko rero, Ubushinwa n’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi na bo nyene boshobora kwihora n’ibiciro vy’ugusubizanya, bikaba bishobora gutuma haba ubudandaji bw’isi yose bugenda buragabanuka.

 

Muri rusangi, iyo nzira ya Trump igamije gukoresha ibiciro kugira ngo ihindure uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho kugira ngo ibe muri Amerika no gukomeza ubukuru bwayo bw’ubuhinga. Ariko rero, hariho ingaruka zikomeye: ibiciro vyongerezwa, uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho vyahungabanijwe, n’ingorane zo mu vy’ubuhinga bw’isi. Amashirahamwe ategerezwa gukurikirana neza ido n’ido ry’ayo makori no gutegura neza uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho vyayo. Ku rwego rw’igihugu, uburinganire butegerezwa guterwa hagati y’umutekano w’inganda n’uburinganire bw’ubudandaji kugira ngo ntihagire ingaruka zisenyuka. Amatangazo yihariye ya Trump mu ndwi iza azoba ari ngirakamaro mu kumenya ubuyobozi bw’ubuhinga bw’amashanyarazi bw’isi yose.